04 July 2008

Actionable Oil Analysis

The more things change the more they stay the same. The following oil analysis from Foreign Affairs July/August 2001 is on-point and rigorous look at oil pricing and how we can and should respond. It wasn't until I was on the final page that I realized that the article was written seven years previous, a clear indication of either my stupidity or the similarity of the problem today to the nearly identical problem of yesteryear.

The lesson learned is that the clear choice in combating energy prices are demand-side solutions, not supply-side ones. By that I mean a push for greater efficiency (of oil use) rather than an increase in oil supply. For example (as the article points out), drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge would increase daily oil supplies over a period of 30 years equivalent to the oil savings which would be found through increasing fuel efficiency 0.4 mpg on all light vehicles. That 0.4 mpg efficiency increase was seen every 5 months from 1979-1985. And furthermore, the cost of increasing efficiency is cheaper than drilling for the oil (0r fighting for it?). So let us increase efficiency until the cost of drilling and/or war matches further efficiency initiatives, and then we can meaningfully discuss if American hegemony is a worthy pursuit.


Morrie Roberts said...

Dear Anda,

I am borrowing your sister's computer. Now that I have a new liver, I need a new wardrobe.

I cannot find anything about high men's fashion on this blog. All I read about was oil. What is the problem? I'm still not allowed to drive - has the price of oil gone up?

all the best,
Morrie (timothy's dad)

PS. Please clue me in on how I can start my own blog, though my family is very nervous about what I will have to say

Trebor Yeneerg said...

An impressive statistic. Did you check or verify its accuracy? Took me about three minutes without using any reference sources. I got a figure of 2 billion gallons (about 50 million barrels) per year saved. That's about 1.5 billion barrels in 30 years. In the ballpark I guess. Check for yourself and see if you get a similar number.

Of course, the point that efficiency is the biggest and cheapest source of energy is well known but still not widely appreciated. Necessity may now force our hand.

Trebor Yeneerg

Anda said...

Very easy to start a blog. Go to blogger.com and voila.

The statistic is straight from the Foreign Affairs article. That's the reference.

Immanuel Llorens said...

Oh, either way, this is true. Our oil addiction is haunting us, that's why there are water-powered and solar-powered cars in the market - to lessen our oil dependence. And these save us bucks, too. So now what? I hope our oil addiction will be out of the context in the coming years.